NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

   

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about 800
miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands have become a
little better organized since yesterday. Some additional
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days before environmental conditions become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. This system is forecast to move to the
west-northwest at near 20 mph toward the Windward Islands and
northeastern South America during the next two days, and interests
in these areas should monitor its progress. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely to
spread over portions of the Windward Islands Monday night and
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that a broad low
pressure area is centered near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms along with winds to gale force several hundred miles
to the east and northeast of the center. However, the low lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, and the Hurricane Hunter mission
scheduled for this afternoon has been canceled. Gradual development
is expected while the low moves slowly north-northwestward across
the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, where a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form. Regardless of development,
heavy rains are expected over portions of Central America, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Monday, if
necessary. For more information on this system, please see the
High Seas Forecast issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast
Branch.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven

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